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研究 Racial Gaps in Financial Outcomes

Big Data Evidence

Even amidst strong macroeconomic conditions, 家庭经历着高度的收入波动,这对幸福有着重要的影响. Previous JP摩根 追逐 研究所 research has shown that families cut consumption on everyday necessities when they experience job loss, 推迟医疗保健和耐用品的支出,直到他们的退税到来. 一个关键原因是它们的流动现金缓冲不足. Families with limited liquid assets are dramatically less likely to smooth consumption in the face of 收入 fluctuations.

It stands to reason then that racial gaps in liquid assets and wealth could result in racial differences in consumption smoothing. Longstanding gaps in 收入 and wealth between White families and Black and 拉美裔 families have been well documented and have only grown following the Great Recession. 这些种族差距在经济环境中的下游后果是什么, 尤其是当家庭收入逐日、逐月波动的时候?

这份报告首次对流动资产的种族差异进行了高频分析, take-home 收入, and families’ consumption response to 收入 volatility from the vantage point of a novel de-identified data source: administrative banking data paired with self-reported race information. We matched 追逐 banking records with 2018 voter registration records in the states that had 追逐 branches in 2018 and that, under the Voting Rights Act, collect race information during voter registration.

This match yielded a large sample of 1.8 million families for whom we observe the race of the primary account holder along with other demographic characteristics, and a high-frequency, integrated view of 收入, 支出, and liquid assets. 这个样本大致代表了黑人各自的收入分配, 拉美裔, and White registered voters nationally and provides a reliable window into racial gaps in financial outcomes compared to benchmarks.

 

有了这个新的数据资产,我们在本报告中回答了三个关键问题. 第一个, 黑人的税后收入和流动资产的种族差距有多大, 拉美裔, 以及在考虑到其他人口因素后,它们在多大程度上持续存在? 其次,在家庭的消费平滑度上是否存在种族差异? We examine changes in everyday 支出 in response to two different sources of 收入 volatility: involuntary job loss identified through the receipt of unemployment insurance benefits, a negative cash-flow event; and the arrival of a tax refund, a positive cash-flow event. 第三, to what extent do racial gaps in liquid and financial asset buffers account for racial differences in families’ consumption response to job loss and tax refunds?

Finding One: Median Black and 拉美裔 families earn roughly 70 cents in take-home 收入 for every dollar earned by White families, 在收入较高和年龄较大的账户持有人中,种族收入差距最大.

我们用黑人和西班牙裔家庭的实得收入之比来衡量种族差距, respectively, relative to White families, where race refers to the race of the primary account holder. Given that these measures are expressed as ratios, a ratio of 1.0代表平等,较低的比率代表较大的种族差距.

Finding Two: 流动资产的种族差距是实得收入差距的两倍. 这种情况在各个收入阶层都存在,在65岁以上人群中最为严重.

Finding Three: 与白人男性相比,黑人女性在实得收入和流动资产方面的差距最大, but racial gaps are larger among men than women.

Finding Four: Across geographies, the financial outcomes of 拉美裔 families vary the most, while the financial outcomes of Black families vary the least. Black-White gaps in financial outcomes are largest in Louisiana, while 拉美裔-White gaps are largest in Florida.

Finding Five: After involuntary job loss, 与白人家庭相比,黑人和西班牙裔家庭削减日常开支的幅度更大, 这些差异可以用流动资产和金融资产缓冲方面的种族差异来解释.

Finding Six: Upon receipt of a tax refund, 黑人和西班牙裔家庭比白人家庭增加的支出更多, 这些差异可以用流动资产和金融资产缓冲方面的种族差异来解释.

In conclusion, 我们发现,在实得收入和流动资产方面存在巨大的种族差异,这种差异在不同年龄的人群中持续存在, 收入, 性别, and geography. The racial gap in liquid assets makes Black and 拉美裔 families more vulnerable to 收入 fluctuations. Families with lower liquid asset buffers—disproportionately Black and 拉美裔 families—cut their consumption to a greater extent when they experience involuntary job loss and increase their consumption to a greater extent when they receive a tax refund. 然而, racial gaps in consumption smoothing disappear when we account for the racial gaps in liquid and financial asset buffers.

These findings have important implications for public policy and the distributional impacts of policy interventions. They raise broader questions about how to reduce financial volatility and increase liquid assets for low-收入 families and, importantly, 解决造成收入和资产上种族差距的结构性因素.

Efforts to reduce 收入 volatility, particularly among low-收入 families, may include expanding unemployment insurance benefits and ensuring access to workplace benefits and protections such as paid sick and family leave and a predictable work schedule. 它们还可能包括在整个纳税年度分配税收抵免和预扣税.

此外,我们必须考虑帮助家庭管理金融波动的方法. We estimate that a liquid asset buffer of roughly $5,000 to $6,000—as a form of “private insurance”—might enable Black and 拉美裔 families to sustain their typical consumption levels through a job loss or major cash-flow event. This is considerably more than the $1,000 to $1,是我们样本中黑人和西班牙裔家庭的中位数. 因此,一个关键问题是如何支持家庭建立这些流动资产.

Policies and programs that boost 收入 and address the underlying challenges Black and 拉美裔 families face within the labor market could help to close racial gaps in 收入 in the short-run. These could include increasing the minimum wage, strengthening the Earned Income Tax Credit, investing in job training programs, 减少有犯罪背景的人的就业障碍.

To close the racial gap in liquid assets, which is much larger, we also need stronger programs, 政策, and innovations to both reduce expenses that disproportionately burden Black and 拉美裔 families and promote asset building among low-收入 families. These might include efforts to make housing, high-quality childcare, and higher education more affordable as well as employer- and government-sponsored supports for asset building.

The private, 非营利组织, 作为政策制定者,政府部门都可以发挥重要作用, service providers, and employers in closing racial gaps in 收入 and wealth. Our research shows the importance of disaggregating economic and financial statistics by race and measuring these statistics at a high frequency. Doing so can help shed light on the factors that contribute to racial differences in financial outcomes and instruct us on how to design more efficient and equitable 政策.

 

作者:

Diana Farrell: JP摩根 追逐 研究所, President & 首席执行官

菲奥娜·格雷格:12bet官方研究所消费者研究部主任

克里斯·惠特:12bet官方研究所商业研究部主任

Max Liebeskind: JP摩根 追逐 研究所, 研究 Associate

彼得·加农:芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院助理教授

达蒙·琼斯:芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院副教授

Pascal Noel: Neubauer Family Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business