研究 数据和协作为善

2019年6月27日 12bet官方研究所举行了第二届年度经济研究会议. 法雷尔, 研究所的总裁兼首席执行官, 打开解释, 今天和我们在一起, 我们有学者, 智库领袖, 政策制定者, 和实践者, which speaks very much to what we see as our mission: not just doing groundbreaking research that is taking advantage of the extraordinary access we have to 12bet官方’s administrative data, but also building networks and communities of people who can work alongside each other and help drive better decisions. 这才是我们最关心的.”

在华盛顿举行.C., the day-long conference included eight sessions focused on issues at the forefront of research and policy: 城市和当地社区、企业、家庭、市场的财务健康和福祉，和 经济 作为一个整体.

The opening plenary highlighted the role of cities as a system and the different ways researchers and 政策制定者 can look at challenges cities face. 在讨论城市和当地社区的经济成果时， 瑞秋Meltzer, 新学院城市政策副教授, 描述了2012年超级风暴桑迪对经济冲击的局部影响. She and her colleagues found that neighborhood retail 企业 are less resilient to shocks and that smaller and stand-alone establishments are most vulnerable. 在总, 社区一级的地方损失可能会影响整个城市的市政财政健康. “这些损失会影响社区:失去服务, 企业主失去生计, street activity is affected which could affect crime or have general environment implications for the neighborhood. 但这对整个城市也有影响，”梅尔策说. “这是制定政策的地方. 所以重要的是要意识到，即使这些冲击集中在特定的社区, 这对整个城市都有影响.”

小企业对城市和当地社区的重要性, 还有宏观经济, 在另一场关于小企业融资对家庭财富影响的小组讨论中得到了呼应. 尽管许多关于小企业的研究都集中在企业的一个子集上(那些高增长的企业), 该行业的大多数企业都很小，而且, 值得注意的是, 是经济的重要贡献者吗. 布莱恩Headd他是美国经济学家.S. 小企业管理局, 指出,, “企业所有权对家庭来说越来越重要. 小企业应该更多地参与到大局中，更多地参与到宏观讨论中.”

彼得•罗伯茨 埃默里大学的教授补充说，社区小企业创造了充满活力的社区, 这并不总是用宏观统计来衡量的. 在讨论中，他的研究集中在贫困问题上, 比赛, 以及附近的小企业, 罗伯茨阐述, “如果你想象一下，把世界分成最富裕的城市住宅区和最贫穷的城市住宅区, 由贫困率定义, 你的微音很明显, small, 中型企业差距. 有31个.在我们最贫穷的社区，人均微型企业减少了4%.”

Also increasingly understood as important to household financial health is the ability to manage income volatility, 或者收入和支出的变化. Studying these cash flow dynamics has been central to the 研究所’s work and our research has demonstrated that many American families do not have the cash buffer they need to withstand both a loss of income and an unexpected expense in a given month. 一个关键问题是如何衡量收入波动性, 通过什么数据集, in order to better understand the extent to which families are able to smooth their income spikes and dips. “The conventional wisdom is that only the lower part of the income distribution has a hard time smoothing transitory shocks,” 罗伯特·莫菲特 约翰霍普金斯大学. “我认为现在这种观念受到了挑战，应该被提出来. 总波动率是非常重要的，用于衡量各种群体的不稳定性, 人口群体, 收入水平, but also important is how much volatility is ‘transitory’ and how much is ‘permanent’—or some share in between?”

在另一个讨论在线平台经济和未来工作的小组中， 雪莱管家, 阿斯彭研究所的研究经理, 解释, “非标准的工作安排正受到越来越多的关注. This type of work has proved perniciously difficult to measure accurately and the implications for the 经济 and for workers are similarly opaque.“技术变革的步伐也影响了未来工作的不确定性，和 rise of contingent work through the Online Platform Economy adds another element to the income volatility picture. 而替代性工作安排则会导致整体收入的波动, the additional earnings they provide are often used to supplement traditional labor income and manage negative income shocks.

深入研究家庭支出和债务, the student lending panel discussion focused on understanding cash flow dynamics related to student loan payments and how these payments fit into the context of families’ larger financial lives. 丹尼尔Herbst 亚利桑那大学的教授指出，“学生贷款偿还的数据, 特别是在高频或每月的水平已经很少了. And that has prevented us from getting a descriptive sense of how borrowers are repaying their student loans.“家庭管理学生债务的一种方式是通过收入驱动还款(IDR)计划, 哪一项规定每月还款额不得超过收入的10- 15%. “IDR是朝着正确方向迈出的一大步,赫布斯特说, “but how do we fill the gap caused by the lack of financial instruments available for human capital investments?”

在管理家庭收入和消费波动方面, the importance of families having a cash buffer holds true for making mortgage payments and avoiding default. A newly released 研究所 report was presented at our conference demonstrating that liquidity was a more useful predictor of mortgage default than level of home equity, 支付负担, 或者收入水平. Kanav巴, 研究所金融市场研究主任, 解释, “Mortgage underwriting standards that rely on meeting a debt-to-income threshold at origination may not be the most effective way to reduce mortgage defaults because they cannot account for a borrower’s future income volatility or their ability to withstand that volatility. 然而, homeowners who maintained just a few mortgage payment equivalents of liquidity defaulted at considerably lower rates than homeowners with little liquidity.” Other presentations on the panel also discussed implications of mortgage underwriting standards intended to measure a borrower’s ability to repay their mortgage.

Policy effects on the global 经济 were also reflected in a session focused on financial markets research. Panelists discussed the relationship between liquidity and arbitrage involving less liquid fixed income securities, 以及联邦储备委员会的政策是否会对股市而不是经济数据做出反应. 该小组还介绍了对危机后金融监管如何改变掉期市场结构的研究, 以及央行发布公告的时机如何影响外汇市场.

把今天的主题结合起来, 最后，我们讨论了组织使用数据的方式以及我们如何协同工作. “我们正在经历数据世界的不同时代, 隔壁是一栋楼, emerging into a world where we are able to access multiple data sources and blend them together to create new datasets and models of analysis.” 鲍勃·林乔治城大学的教务长，在我们的闭幕小组讨论中推测道. 解决有关数据共享的许多悬而未决的问题将是很重要的, 透明度, 以及统计模型的不确定性, 伴随这个数据世界新时代的其他技术和非技术问题.

But there are still overarching goals that can unite the public and private sector and offer guidance on how to collaboratively and effectively leverage the current data environment. “这里的主要目标是减少反应性反应，并利用数据为先发制人的行动提供信息,小组成员说 甘尼Rayid 他是芝加哥大学的教授. “在追求效率的过程中，最需要帮助的人可能会被抛在后面.”

该小组强调了我们可以通过多种方式共同努力，更积极地使用这些数据. 通过在私营部门和公共部门之间建立透明的伙伴关系, 共同努力，减少研究人员之间的隔阂, 从业人员, 和政府, 我们可以在确保公平的同时，利用大数据对社会产生切实的影响.

我们感谢为这些重要讨论作出贡献的所有演讲者和与会者. And we look forward to continued collaboration and dialogue as we seek to share our unique data lens to help address some of our most pressing economic challenges.